How accurate is a weather forecast
Interview: How accurate is the weather forecast?
How does prolonged drought, such as we had last year and this spring, have on weather developments?
A great influence. The drought, on land the term drought would be more appropriate, changes the entire water balance - right down to the tributaries, the large rivers that have switched to low water. There is significantly less water from both the top and the sides. The soils lose their water, which can no longer evaporate. This means that an important source for cloud formation and ultimately the formation of rain clouds is missing. So some fronts lose their effectiveness in the weather and suddenly collapse. I have seen this often in 2018 and 2019.
In recent years we have been able to register comparatively warm winters in Europe and, in return, icy temperatures in North America. Is it possible that climate zones are shifting or is it just an increased media perception of singular events?
There is a certain connection when certain patterns appear in the high-altitude currents, then North America and Europe are so out of phase with each other that it is very cold there and very mild here. But it also works the other way around. How this develops over the long term can be observed, as climate change also changes the temperature and salinity structure (keyword: slowing down the Gulf Stream) and in turn the water balance (Arctic ice melt) in such a way that global warming triggers chain reactions. Today there is still an increased media perception, the statistical significance has not yet been secured. In the near future, however, climatic zones will also shift up here in the north, the warming rates in the northern polar latitudes are enormous with three to five degrees compared to the state at the end of the 19th century.
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